MacStansbury

Blogs are dead

Not just an incendiary title, you may start to see that very sea change on the internet. According to a Gartner press release,

Blogging and community contributors will peak in the first half of 2007. Given the trend in the average life span of a blogger and the current growth rate of blogs, there are already more than 200 million ex-bloggers. Consequently, the peak number of bloggers will be around 100 million at some point in the first half of 2007.

Although I’d like to think a blurb like this doesn’t hold much meaning, it’s probably true. First, it doesn’t describe what a blog is, it doesn’t differentiate between blogs and communities, and, most consequently, it doesn’t take into account the billions who haven’t had a chance to get to blogging yet. However, through only experiential data, I can tell you, blogs are becoming passe.

The reasons are many, and they fall into three different, main reasons:

1. Sturgeon’s Revelation
2. The Pareto principle
3. Digg

In exploring these three, I’ll attempt to correlate my experiential data along with some current trends. This isn’t a verifiable scientific study, but rather a prediction. A prediction guided by years of experience, and coherent as any other, as is my wish. We’ll begin with Sturgeon’s Revelation.

Sturgeon’s Revelation

More commonly referred to as Sturgeon’s Law, he was attributed as saying, “Ninety percent of science fiction is crud, but that’s because ninety percent of everything is crud.” This completely unverifiable claim (with its even more dubious origins) is exactly what the blogosphere is made of: 90% crud. That’s not an exact figure, but the relative ratio of good to bad blogs would be closer to the 10:90 Sturgeon suggests.

So, then, if 90% of them are crud, doesn’t that mean that number should remain constant? Meaning, if there’s always going to be a great majority of a genre being bad, with only a part being good, doesn’t that mean that we’ll always have lots of blogs around, not knowing they’re just putting out drivel? Isn’t the inherent nature of the blogger to continue to blog, regardless of the success therein?

I dunno. Been doing it for over 4 years now, and don’t plan on stopping.

And if people like me are too ignorant of the realities of their own popularity, won’t this continue the trend of growth in blogs? Not really. Again, through my own experiential data, I’ve seen literally dozens of blogs shutting down, for no other reason than, “I’m just not feelin’ it any more.”

Without some form of motivation, some kind of reward, bloggers leave the medium (or worse). Be it comments, feedback, or mad blog money, when they don’t get that, they stop. It’s because blogging requires effort, time, and commitment. Without the benefits of the praise (or hatred), community, or money, the value in blogging lessens to the blogger. That, and according to the Pareto principle, we’re reaching out limits.

The Pareto principle

The Pareto principle is a generalization that 80% of the effort is exuded for 20% of the work, with the idea that, as a rule of thumb, your 80:20 ratio will work for most circumstances. Taken to the blogs, 20% are creating the work, while 80% are consuming it. Two out of ten are creating, posting, commenting, linking, and promoting the work, while the other eight are merely consuming.

After the growth trend of the blogs over the past six years, we’re starting to see more blogs than ever - and more “dead” blogs than ever. Steve Rubel, a fellow that charts the blogosphere and works for a PR firm that handles blogs, looked at some data, and concluded that while the number of blogs is still increasing …” the more critical bellweather of blogging’s vitality - daily posts per day - looks like it may be cresting.” The reward-to-work ratio being so low, it’s no wonder people are dropping the format.

It’s that same level of effort and commitment that are driving people elsewhere. Not off the internet - not at all. In fact, they’re actually becoming more involved, in other ways, rather than creating posts about their ideas. No, they’re becoming bookmarkers, video-posters, and, most notably, Diggers.

Digg

If there’s anything that will transition us from blogs to another form of social interaction, it’s Digg. You post links to interesting stories in several categories, users read the linked posts, and either vote for the story (digg it), or they don’t. Popular stories make the front page, and everybody wins. So, for the amount of effort of creating an account, entering a link, and writing a 256-character summary, the submitted article gets votes, the news item hits, and the submitter gets the gratification of getting many diggs on their post.

Like the blogs, each news item gets its own comment section, so you’ve got the active Digg community to filter the content, along with their votes. Thousands of eyes see and sift through popular Diggers and brand-new accounts alike. It’s a more equitable situation than begging for hits on an anonymous blog on Blogger. Easier, too.

It this site, and sites like del.icio.us, MySpace, YouTube, and other social bookmarking and networking sites that give the same level of interaction with its users, without all the work. While Digg may be the largest reason, it’s not the only one; all these sites are sapping the would-be blogosphere. As mainstream site look to include the bloggers, they are also quickly moving to embrace the networking sites.

Transitions

I’ve been active enough on the internet since 1995 to realize that change is rather frequent. Sites come and go, communities that once drew hundreds of thousands now draw hundreds, simple video sites get bought for billions, and I’ve still got a GeoCities page with over 15 megabytes of storage! What a deal!

While Digg, YouTube, MySpace, others are the darlings of the internet right now, there’s no guarantee that’ll hold up forever. There was a time when GeoCities was the hottest place on the internet, Netscape Navigator was the best browser (and didn’t have anything to do with stealing top Diggers), and HoTMaiL didn’t suck. Yes, there was a time when Hotmail didn’t suck.

But things change. I see a time of transition, where the blogs take a back-seat to the social sites. Blogs aren’t going anywhere, there’s too many folks with too much time and sweat equity involved. And, there’s me, who has to keep the percentages up for the 10% worth reading. It’s just the glory days (such as taking down a television anchor, or outing a philandering congressman) aren’t really over, but the impact, and the fascination, has moved on elsewhere.

This post was inspired by the ProBlogger Group Writing Project. Read all the Reviews and Predictions.